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俄“杀手锏”+1，朝鲜攻坚重器交付俄军，或将打破俄乌战场僵局,兵器先锋,原创 俄“杀手锏”+1，朝鲜攻坚重器交付俄军，或将打破俄乌战场僵局_我的网站

一 |     今年以来，俄罗斯的日子不好过，乌克兰凭借无人机攻势，给俄罗斯造成了不小的困扰。    The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command lambasted the US for "collusion and provocations" on 8 July, stressing that its troops are on high alert and are ready to enhance combat preparedness to safeguard China's national sovereignty, security, and peace. It also accused the US of encouraging Taiwan's secessionist sentiment.,"There are three major channels to deliver political signals to Taipei," explained Dr. Chang Ching, a research fellow from the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies and a lead military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan. "They are spokespersons of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, Taiwan Affairs Office and the Defense Ministry. It is relatively unusual to direct a PLA spokesman to deliver such political signals.",Dr. Chang suggests that the PLA's statement appears to be a new psychological operation aimed at the US and Taiwan. The military expert has drawn attention to the fact that "for any sophisticated and well organized military maneuvers, it is always necessary to have proper prior preparation." As such, he suggested that the exercises and the US visit are not causally linked.,"The possibility for the People’s Liberation Army to conduct an improvised military exercise simply reacting to any United States political figure visiting Taiwan is extremely low," the professor argued. "The visit of the US Senator Rick Scott to Taiwan, the premeditated military [exercises] in airspace and waters around Taiwan and the PLA routine press conference just happened on the same day. And a smart PLA spokesman grabbed the chance to exercise his psychological warfare skill and achieve the perception of warfare effects.",China's Military Ready to Prevent Attempts to Achieve ‘Taiwan Independence’17:00 GMT,Washington's Unbalanced China Strategy,The US has been heating up the Taiwan Starits recently. In October 2021, a US special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines were discovered secretly operating in Taiwan for about a year to train military forces. Furthermore, Washington has doubled its unofficial military presence on the island between 31 December 2020 and 30 September 2021, according to the Pentagon's Defense Manpower Data Center. Beijing issued warnings to Washington over the reports.,Washington also upped the ante against China in late February by sending a delegation of former senior defense and security officials to meet Taiwan's president and defense minister, despite Beijing blasting the move as a violation of the China’s sovereignty.,Over the past few months, the Biden administration has likewise ramped up its rhetoric over Taiwan with President Joe Biden even going so far as to repeatedly pledge to "defend" the island from China. Beijing harshly criticized Biden's statements, even though the White House walked the president’s remarks back.,As the Beijing-based daily Global Times commented on the matter, "Biden’s remarks on 'intervening militarily' in the Taiwan question are not a gaffe but signal [the] hollowing out [of Beijing’s] One China policy." In accordance with the One China Policy, Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, Washington has long maintained relations with the island, even though it severed official diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979.,"There are many political commentators and military analysts expecting the worst-case scenario will emerge sooner or later," said Dr. Chang, referring to the possibility of a US-China military standoff over Taiwan. "However, as long as all parties involved in such a circumstance with high uncertainties and tensions are sensible enough, the hope for peaceful resolution of the cross-strait animosities will not totally diminish though many observers will think otherwise.",Biden's 'Strategic Confusion': Why China Won't Fall Into US Traps in Taiwan & Indo-Pacific24 May, 15:08 GMT,The professor believes that as for now, the possibility of any significant Sino-US conflict is quite unlikely. While the differences between Washington and Beijing do exist, "the mutual communication channel and crisis prevention mechanism is also functional," according to the expert.,Dr. Chang went on to claim that the Biden administration's provocative moves with regard to Taiwan could be explained by simmering divisions within the White House.,"Many indications of internal conflicts emerged within his national security and foreign policy team members," he said. "Some key members still keep strong ambition to exercise the salami-slicing tactics on [the] Taiwan issue for acquiring leverage towards Beijing. On the other hand, there are other members who are more willing to seek the possibility for mutual cooperation with their counterparts in Beijing and they will exercise a different set of policies towards Taipei and Beijing accordingly.",As a result, the US administration's strategy remains inconsistent, with Biden’s government being "an orchestra with no competent conductor to coordinate his foreign and security policies.",However, Washington's unbalanced approach comes at the expense of the Taiwanese inhabitants. The present administration's negligence to the peace and stability of the region stems from the fact that "the criteria of supporting Taiwan is to serve the United States national interests, not Taiwan’s welfare," according to the professor.,"Of course, in some cases, there are mutually beneficial solutions and arrangements in US-Taiwan relations," he said. "Nonetheless, US interests are always the concern with higher priority for the leaders in Washington."。    8月，莫斯科上空频繁响起的防空警报声，乌克兰自杀式无人机分批次、多高度、多方向突入莫斯科空域，逼得三大机场轮流关闭，郊区工业设施冒烟。    不过，这个局面，应该很快会迎来巨变，8月24日，俄罗斯传来消息，朝鲜交付的KN-30(火星-11C)战术导弹，已经部署到俄军手上，满编6套发射装置，理论齐射120枚。    朝鲜攻坚重器交付俄军，这意味着俄罗斯的“杀手锏”再+1，或将打破俄乌战场僵局。    为什么这么说?先看数据。KN-30战斗部重达2.5吨，俄军现役“伊斯坎德尔-M”大约500公斤，美军ATACMS只有200多公斤，伊朗“霍拉姆沙赫尔-4”也不过1吨级。        弹道导弹燃料烧尽后，弹头要自己完成姿态调整和末段俯冲。2.5吨的战斗部意味着重心剧烈位移，传统惯导系统很容易在末端失稳。    朝鲜能把这种级别的导弹打出来并交付，说明其固体燃料配方、弹体结构设计和控制算法已经跨过了某个门槛。    再看它的战术价值，俄军手里不缺巡航导弹，也不缺“匕首”这种空射高超音速武器，但“匕首”需要载机起飞，载机在乌克兰防空圈边缘活动本身就有风险。    KN-30是车载发射，能在泥地里机动，打完就撤，齐射时防空系统根本来不及重新引导雷达锁定第二波。更关键的是，它能打穿那些藏在山体、地下、加固混凝土里的目标。    乌克兰过去两年靠什么撑住战线？靠西方资金输血，靠无人机袭扰，更靠把弹药库、指挥所、维修厂藏在地下。

二 |     这些目标此前只有“匕首”能有效摧毁，但“匕首”贵、少、用起来心疼。        KN-30来了之后，俄军可以用两到三枚齐射一座第聂伯河大桥，不是打坏桥面，是把桥墩连根拔掉。乌军七座地区关键节点，一夜之间全在射程之内。

三 |     这才叫“攻坚重器”。乌克兰自己都承认，在KN-30的面前，乌克兰的7个地区将进入打击射程。    西方媒体习惯把朝鲜武器渲染成“粗制滥造”，但KN-30的出现，打的是他们的脸。    朝鲜在固体导弹小型化、大弹头投掷能力上的进步，已经超出了很多情报机构的评估模型。        乌克兰的无人机还能继续往莫斯科飞，但战争不是靠“飞过去”就能赢的。    俄军一旦用KN-30系统性地拆掉乌军的地下节点和后勤动脉，基辅的每一次无人机袭击都将变成“绝望的象征”。    眼下，莫斯科的防空警报和乌克兰腹地的爆炸声正在形成某种残酷的同步。当俄军不再需要心疼“匕首”的使用次数，当2.5吨的弹头可以像下雨一样砸向关键目标，这场持续数年的僵局，或许真的快走到算总账的时候了。

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Published on:05:26:23